Yesterday, the Economic Services area of the consultancy PWC held a conference covering two angles of the "major" transformations taking place within the framework of the fourth industrial revolution: the labour market and the consumer.
Revolutions are characterised by the fact that they are disorderly and happen at an accelerated speed. Although many of them have been delimited - in some cases subsequently - in space and time, in the case of the fourth industrial revolution there is a perceived overlap with the third, but the intuition is that they are two distinct processes.
The third was characterised by the use of electronics and information and communication technologies (ICT) to automate production, and the fourth builds on this in different ways: smart factories, robotics, big data and the internet of things, among others. "But it is important to establish that it is not considered an extension of the previous one, but a different one, for three reasons: the speed, the scope and the impact of the systems," said Matilde Morales, in charge of the presentation.
"Until now, technological progress has basically been limited to the mechanisation of manual tasks, which required physical labour, and now automation has come to encompass not only movements, but also knowledge; this implies changes in the way we live, consume, work and relate to each other," he added.
Work
There are three types of artificial intelligence: assisted - already widespread - which enhances what the company or person is already doing; augmented - emerging - which makes it possible to do things that would not be possible otherwise; and autonomous - nascent - in which machines act on their own. "It is the latter that has made people increasingly fearful of their jobs," she said.
According to a survey conducted this year by PWC of 10,000 people in China, Germany, India, the UK and the US, 37% of respondents are currently worried about the possibility of losing their jobs to automation. For the consultancy firm, this concern "is well-founded": "The percentage of jobs at risk is greater than one-fifth across the board".
But uncertainty is not even across sectors; sectors such as accommodation and restaurants, industry and transport and warehousing have the highest risks of automation, at 66%, 64% and 60% of all jobs. The primary sector, with the lowest proportion (50%), is, however, the sector with the highest impact: almost 320 million jobs worldwide could be replaced.
Turning to Uruguay, a recent study by the Office of Planning and Budgeting showed that 65% of local occupations are at risk of being automated, "although it is important to note that this study did not take into account whether the technology that would replace them could be acquired or whether it would be cost-effective to do so," Morales said.
It is true that many see the advance of technology as a threat, but there are also those who expect new professions to emerge with new advances. "73% of people believe that technology will never replace the human mind, that it can displace tasks or jobs, but not completely replace them," said Morales.
"The option in the face of this is adaptation", said the economist, and suggested that workers, business and government "work together to adapt to this new reality". In this sense, she considered that it would be up to the workers to plan their future, to think about their insertion and the skills that this requires. "It is not only necessary to know about science and technology, but also to acquire other skills: management, adaptability, innovation, an entrepreneurial and collaborative mentality, and creativity," he said. He argued that governments should "accompany them" with appropriate educational and employment policies, "protecting the most vulnerable sectors", promoting employment in other areas and making regulatory change viable, following the example of pioneering countries such as Germany, France, Spain, China and South Korea. On companies, he said that while "they may not be committed to a job that technology has made obsolete, they should have a commitment to employees, to help them adapt and reintegrate".
"The new consumer
For Morales, the "most obvious" impact of the fourth industrial revolution is on consumption: "more and more people are choosing to make their purchases electronically instead of going to the shop". Amazon, one of the five technology "giants", serves to illustrate this. According to the latest retail survey conducted by PWC this year among 24,000 consumers around the world, 56% of respondents made a purchase through the US company in the last month and 39% said social media was the main reason for making the purchase.
While internet use has become popular among consumers, it is generally used more as a search tool than a purchasing tool, and the importance of e-commerce is not equal across all product categories: books, films and video games are the most researched and purchased online - over 60% of cases. On the other hand, Morales highlighted the role of smartphones and the growing trend of their popularity as a shopping device.
In Uruguay, consumers seem to be following the same path. According to the consultant's processing of microdata from the National Statistics Institute's Continuous Household Survey, internet use rose from 41% of the population in 2008 to 71% last year, which, "given the population growth, meant that the number of users doubled from 1.1 to 2.2 million people". According to the analysis, men and women use it equally; half of the users are under 31 years old, although use is increasingly popular among the over-60s.
While the majority use it to search for information (90%), communicate (88%) and for entertainment (83%), "what stands out is the growth in the number of users for financial services and shopping, which quadrupled between 2008 and 2016," Morales concluded, projecting an increase in this trend in the near future.
Source: La Diaria
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